Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
$73.72
73.1¢ → 80¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$24.26 | 73% 2903-1056 (3959) |
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 74¢ | $571 | $617.3 | +$46.3 | 49% 89-94 (183) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 74¢ | $202 | $200 | -$0.03 | 30% 277-652 (929) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $77.8 | $77.2 | +$0.6 | 56% 251-194 (445) |
 crypto-basenji<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $27.04 | $29.63 | +$2.59 | 38% 167-274 (441) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$1,232.71
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$24.26
Record
73%
2903-1056 (3959)
Invested
$571
Value
$617.3
PnL
+$46.3
Record
49%
89-94 (183)
IstarothInvested
$202
Value
$200
PnL
-$0.03
Record
30%
277-652 (929)
Invested
$77.8
Value
$77.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
56%
251-194 (445)
crypto-basenji<$100Invested
$27.04
Value
$29.63
PnL
+$2.59
Record
38%
167-274 (441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.