Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 14¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$4.2K
$-1.4K
76.7¢ → 13.5¢
-82% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 siickCTR | Noavg 82¢ | $3.7K | $3.5K | -$180 | 57% 762-575 (1337) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 48.3¢ | $268.28 | $235.09 | -$8.42 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 80.5¢ | $1.4K | $221.53 | -$874.07 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
 Hannah-Montana | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $526.06 | $147.65 | -$378.41 | 68% 203-97 (300) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 21.6¢ | $270.51 | $72.25 | +$28.05 | 53% 6308-5527 (11835) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.19 | $0.15 | -$0.04 | 50% 513-503 (1016) |
siickCTRInvested
$3,690
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$180
Record
57%
762-575 (1337)
IstarothCTRInvested
$268.28
Value
$235.09
PnL
-$8.42
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Invested
$1,388.59
Value
$221.53
PnL
-$874.07
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
Hannah-MontanaInvested
$526.06
Value
$147.65
PnL
-$378.41
Record
68%
203-97 (300)
Invested
$270.51
Value
$72.25
PnL
+$28.05
Record
53%
6308-5527 (11835)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
513-503 (1016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.