Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $79 held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$79.43

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

1.7¢ → 0.1¢

-97% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$79.43

Total Shares158,867

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
50-PenceCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.6K	$41.36	$-1.5K	39% 158-246 (404)
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$609.75	$25	-$584.75	32% 651-1414 (2065)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$163.37	$3.49	-$159.88	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$150	$3.15	-$146.85	19% 49-212 (261)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$73.17	$3	-$70.17	44% 650-818 (1468)
KE kegliCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.6	$1.5	-$4.5	51% 47-46 (93)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.65	$0.65	-$28.3	56% 3077-2425 (5502)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$14.54	$0.6	-$13.94	38% 495-815 (1310)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$22.5	$0.47	-$22.03	57% 17245-12903 (30148)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$9.51	$0.21	-$9.3	38% 2935-4691 (7626)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.12	$0	-$0.12	46% 6119-7063 (13182)

50-PenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,571.72

Value

$41.36

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

39%

158-246 (404)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$609.75

Value

$25

PnL

-$584.75

Record

32%

651-1414 (2065)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.37

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$159.88

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$146.85

Record

19%

49-212 (261)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.17

Value

PnL

-$70.17

Record

44%

650-818 (1468)

kegliCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

51%

47-46 (93)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$28.3

Record

56%

3077-2425 (5502)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$13.94

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.5

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$22.03

Record

57%

17245-12903 (30148)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.51

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$9.3

Record

38%

2935-4691 (7626)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

6119-7063 (13182)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.