Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $433 held · ended Nov 9
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Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$433.35
$1.76
99.2¢ → 95¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IN insidero | Noavg 99¢ | $287.08 | $288.89 | +$1.81 | 0% 0-40 (40) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $124.53 | $124.53 | +$0 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.93 | -$0.05 | 62% 1295-778 (2073) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.