Will Fenerbahçe reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 71¢ · $601 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$600.58
$37.04
71.5¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Noavg 70.4¢ | $347.35 | $291.47 | +$49.12 | 34% 662-1265 (1927) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $226.77 | $194.71 | -$32.06 | 41% 2125-3050 (5175) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $36.05 | $36.05 | +$22.53 | — 4-0 (4) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $32.05 | $34.65 | -$2.27 | 55% 5185-4273 (9458) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $28.12 | $31.35 | -$0.76 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $18.07 | $12.35 | +$0.48 | 58% 21212-15411 (36623) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$347.35
Value
$291.47
PnL
+$49.12
Record
34%
662-1265 (1927)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$226.77
Value
$194.71
PnL
-$32.06
Record
41%
2125-3050 (5175)
Invested
$36.05
Value
$36.05
PnL
+$22.53
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Anjun<$100Invested
$32.05
Value
$34.65
PnL
-$2.27
Record
55%
5185-4273 (9458)
Invested
$28.12
Value
$31.35
PnL
-$0.76
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$18.07
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$0.48
Record
58%
21212-15411 (36623)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.