Will FaZe Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$1.43

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL+$1.43

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.2¢	$366.81	$367.4	+$0.59	50% 4491-4437 (8928)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.2¢	$266.17	$266.46	+$0.29	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.4¢	$149.1	$149.03	-$0.07	10% 25-236 (261)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 99.1¢	$146.54	$146.91	+$0.37	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$89.19	$89.42	+$0.23	4% 15-322 (337)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$49.7	$49.68	-$0.02	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$49.6	$49.68	+$0.08	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.81	-$0.02	— 0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.77	$5.76	-$0	35% 2903-5326 (8229)

balthazar

Invested

$366.81

Value

$367.4

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

4491-4437 (8928)

cigarettes

Invested

$266.17

Value

$266.46

PnL

+$0.29

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

quietparcel

Invested

$149.1

Value

$149.03

PnL

-$0.07

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

kaxel78

Invested

$146.54

Value

$146.91

PnL

+$0.37

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$89.19

Value

$89.42

PnL

+$0.23

Record

15-322 (337)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$49.7

Value

$49.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$49.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.81

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

2903-5326 (8229)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.