Will Falcons Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $234 held · ends Dec 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$234.28

Combined PnL

$90.76

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 90¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$129.28

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$0.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$105

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$91.49

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 90¢	$108	$107.4	-$0.6	38% 93-154 (247)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.76	$52.5	+$45.74	— 0-3 (3)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.76	$52.5	+$45.74	—
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90¢	$22	$21.88	-$0.12	43% 34-45 (79)

cigarettes

Invested

$108

Value

$107.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.76

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$45.74

Record

—

0-3 (3)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.76

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$45.74

Record

—

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$21.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.