Will Falcons Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$253.84
$2.23
90.2¢ → 90¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 89.3¢ | $107.68 | $108.16 | +$2.05 | 53% 29-26 (55) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $54.6 | $54.6 | +$0 | 29% 871-2138 (3009) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $29.5 | $29.5 | +$0 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $27.3 | $27.3 | +$0 | 22% 80-280 (360) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9.19 | $9.29 | +$0.1 | 41% 662-968 (1630) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $8.81 | $8.81 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $6.64 | $6.72 | +$0.07 | — 2-14 (16) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.57 | $4.57 | +$0 | 46% 320-373 (693) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $3.96 | $3.96 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $0.93 | $0.94 | +$0.01 | 43% 337-448 (785) |
HaradwaithInvested
$107.68
Value
$108.16
PnL
+$2.05
Record
53%
29-26 (55)
Invested
$54.6
Value
$54.6
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
871-2138 (3009)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$29.5
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
80-280 (360)
Invested
$9.19
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.1
Record
41%
662-968 (1630)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$6.64
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$0.07
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
320-373 (693)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$3.96
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$0.94
PnL
+$0.01
Record
43%
337-448 (785)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Haradwaith
No — $108.16
mildwindow27
No — $54.6
Bigggggggg
No — $29.5
godblessme2026
No — $27.3
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $9.29
alex20011
No — $8.81
VictorLudorum
No — $6.72
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $4.57
qwen300.fund
No — $3.96
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $0.94