Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $115 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$114.82
-$140.94
10.4¢ → 0.7¢
-94% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $88.66 | $47.31 | -$41.36 | 52% 327-297 (624) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $106.11 | $37.54 | -$61.65 | 21% 300-1140 (1440) |
 MEPPCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $60.77 | $28.05 | -$34.37 | 64% 624-348 (972) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $4.83 | $1.74 | -$3.09 | 18% 526-2355 (2881) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.67 | $0.19 | -$0.47 | 57% 13599-10421 (24020) |
Invested
$88.66
Value
$47.31
PnL
-$41.36
Record
52%
327-297 (624)
IstarothCTRInvested
$106.11
Value
$37.54
PnL
-$61.65
Record
21%
300-1140 (1440)
MEPPCTR<$100Invested
$60.77
Value
$28.05
PnL
-$34.37
Record
64%
624-348 (972)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$3.09
Record
18%
526-2355 (2881)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$0.47
Record
57%
13599-10421 (24020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.