Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$9.23
53.9¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $764.5 | $750 | -$10.69 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.3¢ | $474.5 | $378.75 | -$95.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $286.18 | $371.25 | +$85.06 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 49.3¢ | $172.06 | $176.1 | +$4.04 | 53% 6290-5520 (11810) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438ARB<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $185.62 | $152.19 | -$4.63 | 53% 321-284 (605) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.4¢ | $116.6 | $84.17 | -$32.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $42.16 | $68.03 | +$27.84 | |
LI lissartter | Noavg 64¢ | $102.56 | $80.99 | -$14.29 | 42% 5192-7111 (12303) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $10.03 | $11.05 | +$1.02 | 46% 2738-3276 (6014) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$764.5
Value
$750
PnL
-$10.69
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.06
Value
$176.1
PnL
+$4.04
Record
53%
6290-5520 (11810)
Invested
$185.62
Value
$152.19
PnL
-$4.63
Record
53%
321-284 (605)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.56
Value
$80.99
PnL
-$14.29
Record
42%
5192-7111 (12303)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$11.05
PnL
+$1.02
Record
46%
2738-3276 (6014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.