Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.6K
$179.8
32¢ → 40¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 58.5¢ | $596.12 | $681.81 | +$85.69 | 53% 1090-977 (2067) |
FL flawfenceCTR | Noavg 31.7¢ | $1.4K | $512.95 | +$61.44 | 46% 267-310 (577) |
TY TyatsmrCTR | Noavg 32.3¢ | $272.73 | $338.03 | +$31.51 | 48% 252-276 (528) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Noavg 37.9¢ | $44.23 | $21.91 | +$1.16 | 53% 320-284 (604) |
Invested
$596.12
Value
$681.81
PnL
+$85.69
Record
53%
1090-977 (2067)
Invested
$1,424.85
Value
$512.95
PnL
+$61.44
Record
46%
267-310 (577)
Invested
$272.73
Value
$338.03
PnL
+$31.51
Record
48%
252-276 (528)
Invested
$44.23
Value
$21.91
PnL
+$1.16
Record
53%
320-284 (604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.