Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$63.27

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 71¢

-15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$691.03

Total Shares2,648

Combined PnL+$219.82

No2 traders

Total Value$899.75

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL-$156.56

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

626h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$816.62	$855.23	+$14.94	59% 978-672 (1650)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.5¢	$682.84	$659.92	-$46.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.5¢	$153.62	$195.31	+$61.52
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 20.1¢	$346.35	$544.01	+$197.66	53% 1100-980 (2080)
LI lissartter	Noavg 83.5¢	$620.81	$533.15	-$87.66	42% 5193-7116 (12309)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Noavg 83.7¢	$435.5	$366.6	-$68.9	66% 556-285 (841)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$124.86	$147.02	+$22.16	36% 2027-3621 (5648)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$816.62

Value

$855.23

PnL

+$14.94

Record

59%

978-672 (1650)

Both legs:

No$682.8476.5¢-$46.58

Yes$153.6220.5¢+$61.52

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.35

Value

$544.01

PnL

+$197.66

Record

53%

1100-980 (2080)

lissartter

Invested

$620.81

Value

$533.15

PnL

-$87.66

Record

42%

5193-7116 (12309)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Invested

$435.5

Value

$366.6

PnL

-$68.9

Record

66%

556-285 (841)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.86

Value

$147.02

PnL

+$22.16

Record

36%

2027-3621 (5648)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

626h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.