Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $374 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$374.14
$14.26
85.5¢ → 92.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
496h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 87.5¢ | $182 | $185 | +$3 | 56% 15363-11918 (27281) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 83¢ | $124.5 | $138.75 | +$14.25 | 53% 1172-1056 (2228) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $40.47 | $44.18 | +$3.7 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $2.9 | $3.62 | +$0.72 | 50% 356-356 (712) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $10 | $2.59 | -$7.41 | 57% 1111-835 (1946) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$182
Value
$185
PnL
+$3
Record
56%
15363-11918 (27281)
Invested
$124.5
Value
$138.75
PnL
+$14.25
Record
53%
1172-1056 (2228)
Invested
$40.47
Value
$44.18
PnL
+$3.7
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$0.72
Record
50%
356-356 (712)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$7.41
Record
57%
1111-835 (1946)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.