Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.5K
$587.71
41.3¢ → 44¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
557h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 theta-thunbergCTR | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $281.97 | $783.69 | +$529.71 | 56% 421-332 (753) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 60.4¢ | $485.57 | $587.39 | +$101.83 | 57% 1101-821 (1922) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $105.85 | $60.58 | +$1.86 | 53% 320-284 (604) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 70¢ | $160.72 | $18.98 | -$45.68 | 30% 277-652 (929) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $3.46 | $3.46 | +$0 | 77% 11126-3388 (14514) |
theta-thunbergCTRInvested
$281.97
Value
$783.69
PnL
+$529.71
Record
56%
421-332 (753)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$485.57
Value
$587.39
PnL
+$101.83
Record
57%
1101-821 (1922)
Invested
$105.85
Value
$60.58
PnL
+$1.86
Record
53%
320-284 (604)
IstarothCTRInvested
$160.72
Value
$18.98
PnL
-$45.68
Record
30%
277-652 (929)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
11126-3388 (14514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.