Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.8K
-$122.58
93.8¢ → 99.2¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4843h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 90¢ | $855 | $941.93 | +$86.93 | 88% 2246-292 (2538) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.5¢ | $555.84 | $590.65 | +$6.37 | 77% 11689-3583 (15272) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 95.4¢ | $136.6 | $141.97 | +$5.37 | 50% 220-217 (437) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $71.71 | $71.94 | +$0.23 | 55% 803-666 (1469) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $26.78 | $26.8 | +$0.03 | 46% 6090-7031 (13121) |
TE technician2CTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $230 | $8.5 | -$221.5 | 53% 454-403 (857) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$855
Value
$941.93
PnL
+$86.93
Record
88%
2246-292 (2538)
Invested
$555.84
Value
$590.65
PnL
+$6.37
Record
77%
11689-3583 (15272)
Invested
$136.6
Value
$141.97
PnL
+$5.37
Record
50%
220-217 (437)
Invested
$71.71
Value
$71.94
PnL
+$0.23
Record
55%
803-666 (1469)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$26.78
Value
$26.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
46%
6090-7031 (13121)
Invested
$230
Value
$8.5
PnL
-$221.5
Record
53%
454-403 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.