Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in November?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.5K
$24.52
95¢ → 95.3¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$2.04 | 65% 2644-1393 (4037) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $756 | $762.4 | +$8.4 | 55% 803-666 (1469) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $395.77 | $399.55 | +$5.24 | 77% 295-88 (383) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $26.51 | $35.23 | +$8.71 | 50% 220-217 (437) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $23.83 | $23.9 | +$0.06 | 48% 9289-10165 (19454) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.1 | $0.16 | +$0.06 | 43% 240-316 (556) |
Invested
$1,298.12
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$2.04
Record
65%
2644-1393 (4037)
Invested
$756
Value
$762.4
PnL
+$8.4
Record
55%
803-666 (1469)
Invested
$395.77
Value
$399.55
PnL
+$5.24
Record
77%
295-88 (383)
Invested
$26.51
Value
$35.23
PnL
+$8.71
Record
50%
220-217 (437)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$23.83
Value
$23.9
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
9289-10165 (19454)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.06
Record
43%
240-316 (556)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.