Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 93¢ · $27K held · ends Dec 1

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$528.63

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 92.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares29,329

Combined PnL+$528.18

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.8

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.45

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 89.5¢	$12.1K	$12.5K	+$276.2	65% 3067-1635 (4702)
GE getbipped	Noavg 91.2¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$155.46	50% 256-254 (510)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 92.3¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$40.16	46% 509-587 (1096)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 89.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$65.85	77% 306-89 (395)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 90.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$16.06	55% 845-700 (1545)
balthazar	Noavg 91¢	$262.34	$266.67	+$4.32	52% 30902-28975 (59877)
PippiTrader<$100	Noavg 91¢	$91	$92.5	+$1.5	59% 436-303 (739)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 91.2¢	$107.06	$22.71	+$0.49	48% 10358-11033 (21391)
TO Tokor<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.99	$9.24	+$0.25	62% 865-534 (1399)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$1.35	$1.8	+$0.45	52% 251-230 (481)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$12,079.52

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$276.2

Record

65%

3067-1635 (4702)

getbipped

Invested

$5,632.18

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$155.46

Record

50%

256-254 (510)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$4,831.96

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$40.16

Record

46%

509-587 (1096)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,783.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$65.85

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$1,875.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$16.06

Record

55%

845-700 (1545)

balthazar

Invested

$262.34

Value

$266.67

PnL

+$4.32

Record

52%

30902-28975 (59877)

PippiTrader<$100

Invested

$91

Value

$92.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

59%

436-303 (739)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$107.06

Value

$22.71

PnL

+$0.49

Record

48%

10358-11033 (21391)

Tokor<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.25

Record

62%

865-534 (1399)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

251-230 (481)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.