Will Ethereum reach $2,900 November 2-8?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$44.3K
$869.35
97.9¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
67h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $20.2K | $20.2K | +$273.09 | 46% 520-601 (1121) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $7.9K | $8.1K | +$200.4 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 97.3¢ | $7.0K | $7.2K | +$186.46 | 50% 260-255 (515) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 96.8¢ | $6.5K | $6.4K | +$198.18 | 62% 880-543 (1423) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$11.4 | 77% 306-89 (395) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.9¢ | $380.76 | $380.6 | -$0.16 | 77% 12942-3921 (16863) |
Invested
$20,239.05
Value
$20.2K
PnL
+$273.09
Record
46%
520-601 (1121)
Invested
$7,880.07
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$200.4
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$7,030.8
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$186.46
Record
50%
260-255 (515)
Invested
$6,450
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$198.18
Record
62%
880-543 (1423)
Invested
$1,983.6
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$11.4
Record
77%
306-89 (395)
Invested
$380.76
Value
$380.6
PnL
-$0.16
Record
77%
12942-3921 (16863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.