Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in November?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 94¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 1

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$119.36

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,835

Combined PnL+$133.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$179.72

Total Shares2,396

Combined PnL-$13.82

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 90.2¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$137.78	65% 3106-1654 (4760)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 92.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$4.7	77% 306-89 (395)
GE getbippedARB<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$308.99	$302.48	-$6.51	50% 260-255 (515)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8¢	$207.2	$194.25	-$12.95
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$101.78	$108.23	+$6.44
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 7¢	$111.23	$119.18	+$7.95	46% 520-601 (1121)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$32.28	$32.38	+$0.09	49% 10705-11356 (22061)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$20.18	$21.62	+$1.44	52% 31278-29168 (60446)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$18.27	$19.58	+$1.31	62% 880-543 (1423)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$43.86	$19.35	-$24.51	52% 253-231 (484)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$7,144.67

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$137.78

Record

65%

3106-1654 (4760)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,877.03

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.7

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

getbippedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$308.99

Value

$302.48

PnL

-$6.51

Record

50%

260-255 (515)

Both legs:

Yes$207.28¢-$12.95

No$101.7887¢+$6.44

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.23

Value

$119.18

PnL

+$7.95

Record

46%

520-601 (1121)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$32.28

Value

$32.38

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

10705-11356 (22061)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.18

Value

$21.62

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

31278-29168 (60446)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.27

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$1.31

Record

62%

880-543 (1423)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.86

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$24.51

Record

52%

253-231 (484)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.