Will Ethereum reach $2,800 November 2-8?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$36.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.3¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$36.1K

Total Shares36,144

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.03

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

91h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbipped	Noavg 96.9¢	$18.6K	$19.0K	+$505.46	50% 258-255 (513)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 97.3¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$132.33	46% 510-587 (1097)
TO Tokor	Noavg 95.5¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$219.45	62% 868-536 (1404)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 96.9¢	$9.6K	$4.7K	+$161.38	65% 3070-1637 (4707)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 98.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$34	77% 306-89 (395)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 97.4¢	$233.49	$18.85	+$1.38	48% 10475-11146 (21621)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.76	$16.79	+$0.03	77% 12723-3885 (16608)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.04	$0.01	-$0.03	40% 344-511 (855)

getbipped

Invested

$18,639.36

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$505.46

Record

50%

258-255 (513)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$5,259.37

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$132.33

Record

46%

510-587 (1097)

Tokor

Invested

$5,046.09

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$219.45

Record

62%

868-536 (1404)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$9,590.92

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$161.38

Record

65%

3070-1637 (4707)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,962

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$34

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$233.49

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

10475-11146 (21621)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$16.76

Value

$16.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

12723-3885 (16608)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

344-511 (855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

91h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.