Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in November?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$4.3K
-$19.89
87.9¢ → 85.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 88¢ | $3.8K | $3.7K | -$105.97 | 66% 2461-1295 (3756) |
GE getbippedCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $360 | $435 | +$75 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $98.9 | $98.33 | -$0.58 | 76% 279-86 (365) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $55.93 | $67.58 | +$11.65 | 62% 796-492 (1288) |
Invested
$3,781.36
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$105.97
Record
66%
2461-1295 (3756)
Invested
$360
Value
$435
PnL
+$75
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$98.9
Value
$98.33
PnL
-$0.58
Record
76%
279-86 (365)
Invested
$55.93
Value
$67.58
PnL
+$11.65
Record
62%
796-492 (1288)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.