Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 26-November 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$11.6K
$116.83
98.3¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $8.9K | $9.0K | +$115.26 | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$45 | 73% 230-86 (316) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 98.9¢ | $609.64 | $608.11 | +$5.18 | 49% 201-206 (407) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $59.17 | $10.54 | -$48.62 | 43% 181-238 (419) |
 Facaie<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.98 | $4.98 | +$0.01 | 92% 1268-105 (1373) |
Invested
$8,888.45
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$115.26
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$45
Record
73%
230-86 (316)
Invested
$609.64
Value
$608.11
PnL
+$5.18
Record
49%
201-206 (407)
Invested
$59.17
Value
$10.54
PnL
-$48.62
Record
43%
181-238 (419)
Facaie<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
92%
1268-105 (1373)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.