Will Ethereum reach $2,700 November 9-15?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$22.8K
$285.13
97.3¢ → 98.4¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $11.1K | $11.2K | +$142.75 | 51% 24-23 (47) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 97.4¢ | $11.0K | $11.2K | +$135.17 | — 0-16 (16) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 96.4¢ | $274.98 | $281.11 | +$6.13 | 48% 70-75 (145) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $88.36 | $89.68 | +$1.32 | — 16-0 (16) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.8 | $0.55 | -$0.24 | — 4-9 (13) |
Invested
$11,088.71
Value
$11.2K
PnL
+$142.75
Record
51%
24-23 (47)
Invested
$11,019.34
Value
$11.2K
PnL
+$135.17
Record
—
0-16 (16)
Invested
$274.98
Value
$281.11
PnL
+$6.13
Record
48%
70-75 (145)
Invested
$88.36
Value
$89.68
PnL
+$1.32
Record
—
16-0 (16)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.24
Record
—
4-9 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.