Will Ethereum reach $2,600 November 9-15?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$22.9K
$477.5
96.1¢ → 98.2¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $11.0K | $11.2K | +$170.83 | 51% 24-23 (47) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 95.6¢ | $8.8K | $9.1K | +$239.36 | — 0-16 (16) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 95.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$63.13 | 48% 70-75 (145) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $174.45 | $178.63 | +$4.19 | — 16-0 (16) |
Invested
$11,026.98
Value
$11.2K
PnL
+$170.83
Record
51%
24-23 (47)
Invested
$8,842.86
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$239.36
Record
—
0-16 (16)
Invested
$2,356.9
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$63.13
Record
48%
70-75 (145)
Invested
$174.45
Value
$178.63
PnL
+$4.19
Record
—
16-0 (16)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.