Will Ethereum reach $2,600 November 2-8?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 9

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$51.7K

Combined PnL

$640.83

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 98.2¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$51.7K

Total Shares52,628

Combined PnL+$645.75

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.28

Total Shares152

Combined PnL-$4.92

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO Tokor	Noavg 93.5¢	$23.6K	$23.2K	+$1.2K	62% 860-534 (1394)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 94¢	$12.7K	$13.3K	-$90.95	65% 3039-1618 (4657)
GE getbipped	Noavg 94.6¢	$10.8K	$11.2K	+$432.18	50% 256-254 (510)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 97.6¢	$3.9K	$2.0K	-$940.58	77% 306-89 (395)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 93.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$66.17	46% 509-587 (1096)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 95.4¢	$859.55	$590.18	+$27.63	98% 7608-185 (7793)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 92.6¢	$685.85	$29.18	-$4.16	48% 10288-10956 (21244)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$14.93	$2.25	-$1.7	59% 433-300 (733)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$18.84	$0.03	-$3.22	40% 322-492 (814)

Tokor

Invested

$23,597.49

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

62%

860-534 (1394)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$12,726.67

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$90.95

Record

65%

3039-1618 (4657)

getbipped

Invested

$10,784.87

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$432.18

Record

50%

256-254 (510)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$3,902.33

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$940.58

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$1,352.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$66.17

Record

46%

509-587 (1096)

Sharky6999

Invested

$859.55

Value

$590.18

PnL

+$27.63

Record

98%

7608-185 (7793)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$685.85

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$4.16

Record

48%

10288-10956 (21244)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.93

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$1.7

Record

59%

433-300 (733)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.84

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.22

Record

40%

322-492 (814)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.