Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in November?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$1.9K
-$62.54
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 70¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$79.03 | 66% 2461-1295 (3756) |
GE getbippedCTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $210.57 | $222.49 | +$11.93 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
EN En11006CTR | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $157.23 | $161.72 | +$4.49 | 57% 30-23 (53) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $0.41 | $0.47 | +$0.06 | 62% 796-492 (1288) |
Invested
$1,580.6
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$79.03
Record
66%
2461-1295 (3756)
Invested
$210.57
Value
$222.49
PnL
+$11.93
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$157.23
Value
$161.72
PnL
+$4.49
Record
57%
30-23 (53)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.47
PnL
+$0.06
Record
62%
796-492 (1288)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.