Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$35.3K
$2.3K
87.8¢ → 97.2¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 94.1¢ | $19.6K | $19.6K | +$41.46 | 49% 195-206 (401) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $9.1K | $11.5K | +$2.3K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 91.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | +$89.46 | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$76.05 | 72% 225-86 (311) |
 PippiTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $99.3 | $19.37 | -$86.88 | 59% 263-180 (443) |
Invested
$19,552.81
Value
$19.6K
PnL
+$41.46
Record
49%
195-206 (401)
Invested
$9,109.12
Value
$11.5K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$2,522.82
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$89.46
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
Invested
$1,954.05
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$76.05
Record
72%
225-86 (311)
PippiTraderCTR<$100Invested
$99.3
Value
$19.37
PnL
-$86.88
Record
59%
263-180 (443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.