Will Ethereum reach $2,500 November 9-15?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$54.8K
$156.96
96¢ → 96.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $21.2K | $21.3K | +$148.42 | 98% 47-1 (48) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 96.3¢ | $20.5K | $20.6K | +$46.06 | 48% 15-16 (31) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $9.6K | $9.5K | -$39.59 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 95.8¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$22.8 | 49% 82-85 (167) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $131.44 | $110.7 | -$20.74 | — 2-1 (3) |
Invested
$21,152.99
Value
$21.3K
PnL
+$148.42
Record
98%
47-1 (48)
Invested
$20,511.14
Value
$20.6K
PnL
+$46.06
Record
48%
15-16 (31)
Invested
$9,583.33
Value
$9.5K
PnL
-$39.59
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
Invested
$3,287.15
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$22.8
Record
49%
82-85 (167)
Invested
$131.44
Value
$110.7
PnL
-$20.74
Record
—
2-1 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.