Will Ethereum reach $2,500 November 2-8?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 9

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 98¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares26,751

Combined PnL-$718.39

Yes2 traders

Total Value$292.65

Total Shares7,924

Combined PnL-$423.99

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbipped	Noavg 68.3¢	$9.6K	$13.3K	+$3.8K	50% 258-255 (513)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 85.9¢	$25.2K	$5.8K	$-5.4K	65% 3070-1637 (4707)
TO Tokor	Noavg 89.1¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$378.49	62% 868-536 (1404)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$13	77% 306-89 (395)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 8.8¢	$678.87	$286.53	-$392.34	46% 510-587 (1097)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 87.5¢	$6.3K	$246.1	+$380	98% 7628-185 (7813)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 80.9¢	$124.86	$44.31	+$93.76	48% 10447-11111 (21558)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$40.34	$6.12	-$31.65	59% 441-305 (746)

getbipped

Invested

$9,557.96

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

50%

258-255 (513)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$25,170.83

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

65%

3070-1637 (4707)

Tokor

Invested

$4,465.99

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$378.49

Record

62%

868-536 (1404)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,934.73

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$13

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$678.87

Value

$286.53

PnL

-$392.34

Record

46%

510-587 (1097)

Sharky6999

Invested

$6,310.5

Value

$246.1

PnL

+$380

Record

98%

7628-185 (7813)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$124.86

Value

$44.31

PnL

+$93.76

Record

48%

10447-11111 (21558)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.34

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$31.65

Record

59%

441-305 (746)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.