Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$6.0K
$634.1
44.7¢ → 50.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $4.0K | $4.5K | +$515.61 | 50% 219-216 (435) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Yesavg 45.4¢ | $423.17 | $494.51 | +$85.33 | 55% 802-666 (1468) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 44¢ | $418 | $479.75 | +$61.75 | 62% 815-506 (1321) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 52.5¢ | $502.64 | $472.27 | -$28.59 | 66% 2596-1347 (3943) |
Invested
$4,017.53
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$515.61
Record
50%
219-216 (435)
Invested
$423.17
Value
$494.51
PnL
+$85.33
Record
55%
802-666 (1468)
Invested
$418
Value
$479.75
PnL
+$61.75
Record
62%
815-506 (1321)
Invested
$502.64
Value
$472.27
PnL
-$28.59
Record
66%
2596-1347 (3943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.