Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on November 5?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.0K
-$104.82
87.1¢ → 98¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbippedCTR | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $214.27 | $828.04 | +$617.74 | 50% 256-253 (509) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 86¢ | $1.1K | $548.25 | -$561.15 | 62% 860-533 (1393) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $412.73 | $465.83 | +$53.1 | 65% 3039-1616 (4655) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $357.47 | $158.09 | -$199.38 | 98% 7603-185 (7788) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $35.2 | $14.68 | -$15.12 | 39% 319-489 (808) |
Invested
$214.27
Value
$828.04
PnL
+$617.74
Record
50%
256-253 (509)
Invested
$1,109.4
Value
$548.25
PnL
-$561.15
Record
62%
860-533 (1393)
Invested
$412.73
Value
$465.83
PnL
+$53.1
Record
65%
3039-1616 (4655)
Invested
$357.47
Value
$158.09
PnL
-$199.38
Record
98%
7603-185 (7788)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$14.68
PnL
-$15.12
Record
39%
319-489 (808)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.