Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on November 2?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$24.2K
$964.28
95.6¢ → 99.2¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $10.3K | $10.7K | +$374.55 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 95.2¢ | $7.8K | $8.1K | +$270.86 | 50% 220-218 (438) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$73.73 | 98% 7001-171 (7172) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 95.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$65.67 | 62% 819-512 (1331) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $108.87 | $99.13 | +$193.16 | 43% 260-343 (603) |
DR drugi.mlazCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $21.29 | $7.6 | -$13.69 | — 2-13 (15) |
Invested
$10,347.66
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$374.55
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
Invested
$7,791.22
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$270.86
Record
50%
220-218 (438)
Invested
$3,172.66
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$73.73
Record
98%
7001-171 (7172)
Invested
$1,894.48
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$65.67
Record
62%
819-512 (1331)
Invested
$108.87
Value
$99.13
PnL
+$193.16
Record
43%
260-343 (603)
Invested
$21.29
Value
$7.6
PnL
-$13.69
Record
—
2-13 (15)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.