Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$25.4K
$1.5K
85¢ → 97.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 86.1¢ | $19.9K | $20.8K | +$872.1 | 49% 200-206 (406) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$7.21 | 98% 6867-164 (7031) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 58¢ | $1.1K | $1.9K | +$744.9 | 63% 774-449 (1223) |
AO aosdijfCTR | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $499.8 | $425.45 | -$74.35 | 10% 48-456 (504) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $44.25 | $15.66 | -$28.59 | 61% 290-189 (479) |
Invested
$19,900.62
Value
$20.8K
PnL
+$872.1
Record
49%
200-206 (406)
Invested
$2,317.46
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$7.21
Record
98%
6867-164 (7031)
Invested
$1,107.8
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$744.9
Record
63%
774-449 (1223)
Invested
$499.8
Value
$425.45
PnL
-$74.35
Record
10%
48-456 (504)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$44.25
Value
$15.66
PnL
-$28.59
Record
61%
290-189 (479)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.