Will Ethereum reach $2,400 November 9-15?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$8.0K
$273.71
93.4¢ → 96.2¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $6.2K | $6.0K | +$172.24 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 92¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$18.45 | 49% 82-85 (167) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $483.52 | $622.16 | +$138.64 | — 2-1 (3) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 95.6¢ | $356.92 | $337.88 | -$19.04 | 48% 15-16 (31) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $0.48 | +$0.32 | 42% 49-69 (118) |
Invested
$6,155.29
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$172.24
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
Invested
$1,131.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$18.45
Record
49%
82-85 (167)
Invested
$483.52
Value
$622.16
PnL
+$138.64
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$356.92
Value
$337.88
PnL
-$19.04
Record
48%
15-16 (31)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.32
Record
42%
49-69 (118)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.