Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in November?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 72¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 1

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$258.83

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 72¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares7,262

Combined PnL+$209.53

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,994

Combined PnL+$49.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EN En11006	Yesavg 72¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$210.31	57% 31-23 (54)
TO TokorCTR	Noavg 28¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$49.69	62% 815-506 (1321)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Yesavg 77¢	$188.65	$188.65	-$1.23	55% 803-666 (1469)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6	$5.8	-$0.4	65% 2633-1390 (4023)
GE getbipped<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$4.88	$5.34	+$0.45	50% 220-217 (437)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	46% 6086-7026 (13112)

En11006

Yes

Invested

$5,047.17

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$210.31

Record

57%

31-23 (54)

TokorCTR

Invested

$1,391.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$49.69

Record

62%

815-506 (1321)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Yes

Invested

$188.65

Value

$188.65

PnL

-$1.23

Record

55%

803-666 (1469)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

65%

2633-1390 (4023)

getbipped<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

220-217 (437)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6086-7026 (13112)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.4%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.