Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on November 9?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $62K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$62.1K
$1.8K
97¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $27.9K | $27.4K | +$719 | — 16-0 (16) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 96.5¢ | $17.5K | $18.1K | +$615.64 | 48% 70-75 (145) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $10.5K | $10.8K | +$258.99 | 51% 24-23 (47) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 95.7¢ | $4.7K | $4.9K | +$208.45 | — 0-16 (16) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $758.36 | $782.3 | +$23.94 | 38% 20-33 (53) |
CL CleanCoinFlip<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $97.1 | $99.94 | +$2.84 | — 4-9 (13) |
Invested
$27,947.47
Value
$27.4K
PnL
+$719
Record
—
16-0 (16)
Invested
$17,492.88
Value
$18.1K
PnL
+$615.64
Record
48%
70-75 (145)
Invested
$10,541.22
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$258.99
Record
51%
24-23 (47)
Invested
$4,723.51
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$208.45
Record
—
0-16 (16)
Invested
$758.36
Value
$782.3
PnL
+$23.94
Record
38%
20-33 (53)
Invested
$97.1
Value
$99.94
PnL
+$2.84
Record
—
4-9 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.