Will Ethereum reach $2,300 October 26-November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$8.3K
$5.0K
36.7¢ → 100¢
+172% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $2.7K | $6.6K | +$3.9K | 66% 2461-1295 (3756) |
GE getbipped | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $215.16 | $1.0K | +$793.82 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
SH Sharky6999CTR | Noavg 52¢ | $469.36 | $379.14 | -$90.22 | 98% 6928-167 (7095) |
19 196874353278 | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $364.84 | $275.9 | -$88.94 | 45% 220-273 (493) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Noavg 7¢ | $313.69 | $17.5 | +$441.16 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
Invested
$2,702.55
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
66%
2461-1295 (3756)
Invested
$215.16
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$793.82
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$469.36
Value
$379.14
PnL
-$90.22
Record
98%
6928-167 (7095)
Invested
$364.84
Value
$275.9
PnL
-$88.94
Record
45%
220-273 (493)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$313.69
Value
$17.5
PnL
+$441.16
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.