Will Ethereum reach $2,300 November 9-15?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$13.8K
-$284.79
89.6¢ → 92¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $6.4K | $6.2K | -$184.99 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 86.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$221.69 | 50% 79-79 (158) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 92¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$33.7 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$355.18 | — 2-1 (3) |
Invested
$6,396.9
Value
$6.2K
PnL
-$184.99
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$3,368.23
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$221.69
Record
50%
79-79 (158)
Invested
$2,810.37
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$33.7
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$1,476.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$355.18
Record
—
2-1 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.