Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in November?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 73¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$339.43

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares11,641

Combined PnL+$254.96

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares7,219

Combined PnL+$84.47

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 67.8¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$254.96	66% 95-49 (144)
GE getbippedCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$232.15	47% 15-17 (32)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR	Yesavg 44.9¢	$364.18	$176.67	-$103.91	— 1-0 (1)
EN En11006CTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$94.21	$54.49	-$39.71	— 0-1 (1)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$9.34	$5.01	-$4.33	47% 1377-1532 (2909)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.5¢	$45.85	$1.38	+$0.28	47% 742-833 (1575)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,104.59

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$254.96

Record

66%

95-49 (144)

getbippedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,933.87

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$232.15

Record

47%

15-17 (32)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR

Yes

Invested

$364.18

Value

$176.67

PnL

-$103.91

Record

—

1-0 (1)

En11006CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.21

Value

$54.49

PnL

-$39.71

Record

—

0-1 (1)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.34

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$4.33

Record

47%

1377-1532 (2909)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.85

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.28

Record

47%

742-833 (1575)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.9%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.