Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on November 11?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$37.6K
$396.58
96.4¢ → 98.4¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97¢ | $16.8K | $17.0K | +$244.81 | 98% 48-1 (49) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $10.1K | $10.0K | -$149.7 | 63% 71-42 (113) |
 CoinTrick | Noavg 95.5¢ | $4.8K | $4.9K | +$145 | 99% 67-1 (68) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 95.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$90 | 48% 15-16 (31) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 95.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$58.63 | 50% 85-86 (171) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $608.72 | $592.74 | +$5.03 | 44% 62-79 (141) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 97.1¢ | $208.76 | $211.56 | +$2.8 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
Invested
$16,795.71
Value
$17.0K
PnL
+$244.81
Record
98%
48-1 (49)
Invested
$10,142.02
Value
$10.0K
PnL
-$149.7
Record
63%
71-42 (113)
CoinTrickInvested
$4,774.98
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$145
Record
99%
67-1 (68)
Invested
$2,861.98
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$90
Record
48%
15-16 (31)
Invested
$1,866.36
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$58.63
Record
50%
85-86 (171)
Invested
$608.72
Value
$592.74
PnL
+$5.03
Record
44%
62-79 (141)
Invested
$208.76
Value
$211.56
PnL
+$2.8
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.