Will Ethereum reach $2,200 November 9-15?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 89¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$11.3K
$498.45
75.3¢ → 88.5¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 76.7¢ | $9.2K | $9.2K | +$799.64 | 66% 95-49 (144) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 62.4¢ | $750.63 | $1.1K | +$301.37 | 50% 89-89 (178) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $974.09 | $599.23 | -$374.86 | — 2-1 (3) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 75¢ | $275.98 | $259.65 | -$16.33 | 55% 375-311 (686) |
GE getbippedCTR | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $292.58 | $80.31 | -$152.28 | 47% 15-17 (32) |
 PippiTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $78.78 | $21.87 | -$56.9 | 37% 14-24 (38) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $74.31 | $3.97 | -$2.18 | 47% 742-833 (1575) |
Invested
$9,208.37
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$799.64
Record
66%
95-49 (144)
Invested
$750.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$301.37
Record
50%
89-89 (178)
Invested
$974.09
Value
$599.23
PnL
-$374.86
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$275.98
Value
$259.65
PnL
-$16.33
Record
55%
375-311 (686)
Invested
$292.58
Value
$80.31
PnL
-$152.28
Record
47%
15-17 (32)
PippiTraderCTR<$100Invested
$78.78
Value
$21.87
PnL
-$56.9
Record
37%
14-24 (38)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$74.31
Value
$3.97
PnL
-$2.18
Record
47%
742-833 (1575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.