Will Ethereum reach $2,100 November 9-15?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$29.82

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 98.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares11,126

Combined PnL+$60.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$199.89

Total Shares10,155

Combined PnL-$90.01

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.6¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	-$16.51	69% 174-79 (253)
GE getbipped	Noavg 95.6¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$64.52	45% 20-24 (44)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$116.1	$102.49	-$6.31	50% 182-185 (367)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$181.1	$97.4	-$83.7	65% 24-13 (37)
CL CleanCoinFlip<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$17.64	$33.05	+$15.41	51% 47-45 (92)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$10.84	$24.52	+$13.69	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
TO Tokor<$100	Noavg 91¢	$2.02	$2.16	+$0.14	53% 125-112 (237)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 97.3¢	$141.78	$1.42	-$17.05	48% 1324-1417 (2741)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$6,991.41

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$16.51

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

getbipped

Invested

$3,816.71

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$64.52

Record

45%

20-24 (44)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.1

Value

$102.49

PnL

-$6.31

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.1

Value

$97.4

PnL

-$83.7

Record

65%

24-13 (37)

CleanCoinFlip<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$33.05

PnL

+$15.41

Record

51%

47-45 (92)

suntori<$100

Invested

$10.84

Value

$24.52

PnL

+$13.69

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Tokor<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$141.78

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$17.05

Record

48%

1324-1417 (2741)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.