Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.5K
$520.9
41.4¢ → 75.5¢
+82% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
79h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 43.1¢ | $622.21 | $1.1K | +$475.19 | 49% 194-203 (397) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 39.4¢ | $491.35 | $946.6 | +$455.25 | 64% 738-423 (1161) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $949.86 | $371.76 | -$428.1 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $35.45 | $47.27 | +$11.82 | 18% 3738-16559 (20297) |
 StupidMonkeyyy<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $7.02 | $13.68 | +$6.75 | 49% 134-140 (274) |
Invested
$622.21
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$475.19
Record
49%
194-203 (397)
Invested
$491.35
Value
$946.6
PnL
+$455.25
Record
64%
738-423 (1161)
Invested
$949.86
Value
$371.76
PnL
-$428.1
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$35.45
Value
$47.27
PnL
+$11.82
Record
18%
3738-16559 (20297)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100Invested
$7.02
Value
$13.68
PnL
+$6.75
Record
49%
134-140 (274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.