Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$4.4K
$42.95
69.7¢ → 91.9¢
+32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $3.2K | $3.9K | +$722.96 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $1.0K | $360 | -$672 | 63% 750-434 (1184) |
GE getbipped<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $95.31 | $90.78 | -$4.53 | 49% 195-204 (399) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $18.57 | $19.58 | +$1.01 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $10.34 | $5.85 | -$4.49 | 32% 88-189 (277) |
Invested
$3,164.78
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$722.96
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
Invested
$1,032
Value
$360
PnL
-$672
Record
63%
750-434 (1184)
Invested
$95.31
Value
$90.78
PnL
-$4.53
Record
49%
195-204 (399)
Invested
$18.57
Value
$19.58
PnL
+$1.01
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$4.49
Record
32%
88-189 (277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.