Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 73¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$14.7K
$269.98
71.8¢ → 73¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $8.4K | $8.4K | -$26.64 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$184.92 | 31% 92-201 (293) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 77.2¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$128.69 | 49% 200-206 (406) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 44¢ | $528.88 | $769.28 | +$240.4 | 98% 6863-164 (7027) |
Invested
$8,424.86
Value
$8.4K
PnL
-$26.64
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$3,059.67
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$184.92
Record
31%
92-201 (293)
Invested
$2,384.41
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$128.69
Record
49%
200-206 (406)
Invested
$528.88
Value
$769.28
PnL
+$240.4
Record
98%
6863-164 (7027)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.