Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 26-November 1?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$5.7K
$725.66
72.9¢ → 90.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 54.5¢ | $1.7K | $2.7K | +$986.92 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 90¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$29 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
EN En11006 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$11 | 57% 30-23 (53) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $76.35 | $92.71 | +$16.36 | 62% 794-490 (1284) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $118.6 | $92.25 | -$26.36 | 45% 211-263 (474) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $356.22 | $56.83 | -$291.27 | 61% 312-200 (512) |
Invested
$1,686.15
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$986.92
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Invested
$1,763.34
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$29
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$1,000.98
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11
Record
57%
30-23 (53)
Invested
$76.35
Value
$92.71
PnL
+$16.36
Record
62%
794-490 (1284)
Invested
$118.6
Value
$92.25
PnL
-$26.36
Record
45%
211-263 (474)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$356.22
Value
$56.83
PnL
-$291.27
Record
61%
312-200 (512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.