Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$13.0K
-$830.98
88.8¢ → 75.6¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $8.4K | $8.1K | -$274.2 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 90.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.3K | -$405.93 | 49% 195-206 (401) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $2.3K | $1.8K | -$495.78 | 31% 90-196 (286) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $297.53 | $668.65 | +$371.12 | 40% 392-579 (971) |
 Facaie<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $96.2 | $70 | -$26.2 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
Invested
$8,370.9
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$274.2
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Invested
$2,733.35
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$405.93
Record
49%
195-206 (401)
Invested
$2,297.96
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$495.78
Record
31%
90-196 (286)
Invested
$297.53
Value
$668.65
PnL
+$371.12
Record
40%
392-579 (971)
Facaie<$100Invested
$96.2
Value
$70
PnL
-$26.2
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.