Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 26-November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$34.1K
$2.1K
79.4¢ → 84.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $23.4K | $21.1K | $-2.3K | 65% 2384-1276 (3660) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 56¢ | $7.6K | $10.6K | +$2.9K | 49% 199-206 (405) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $261.6 | $1.0K | +$767.37 | 63% 765-442 (1207) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yes | $835.07 | $835.07 | +$561.79 | 31% 20-44 (64) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 74.5¢ | $531.81 | $551.17 | +$39.66 | 59% 265-182 (447) |
Invested
$23,375.88
Value
$21.1K
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
65%
2384-1276 (3660)
Invested
$7,633.31
Value
$10.6K
PnL
+$2.9K
Record
49%
199-206 (405)
Invested
$261.6
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$767.37
Record
63%
765-442 (1207)
Invested
$835.07
Value
$835.07
PnL
+$561.79
Record
31%
20-44 (64)
PippiTraderInvested
$531.81
Value
$551.17
PnL
+$39.66
Record
59%
265-182 (447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.