Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 November 2-8?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 85¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 9

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$37.5K

Combined PnL

-$298.33

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 84.6¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares37,540

Combined PnL-$539.61

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares31,374

Combined PnL+$241.28

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbipped	Noavg 81.5¢	$16.5K	$16.4K	+$750.64	50% 258-255 (513)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 87.3¢	$15.6K	$12.5K	$-1.5K	65% 3070-1637 (4707)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$852.84	46% 510-587 (1097)
TO Tokor	Noavg 74¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$244.23	62% 868-536 (1404)
KO KongXCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$1.4K	$765	-$697.5	28% 188-493 (681)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 83.6¢	$304.27	$64.32	+$8.23	48% 10504-11174 (21678)
TI timetowanderCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$12.78	$24.6	+$11.82	38% 415-676 (1091)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$90.37	$18.9	+$28.53	59% 441-305 (746)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$77.76	$0.58	+$45.6	40% 344-511 (855)

getbipped

Invested

$16,541.69

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$750.64

Record

50%

258-255 (513)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$15,594.06

Value

$12.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

65%

3070-1637 (4707)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,620.93

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$852.84

Record

46%

510-587 (1097)

Tokor

Invested

$3,207.25

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$244.23

Record

62%

868-536 (1404)

KongXCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,425

Value

$765

PnL

-$697.5

Record

28%

188-493 (681)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$304.27

Value

$64.32

PnL

+$8.23

Record

48%

10504-11174 (21678)

timetowanderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.78

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$11.82

Record

38%

415-676 (1091)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.37

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$28.53

Record

59%

441-305 (746)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.76

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$45.6

Record

40%

344-511 (855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.5%

84.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.