Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on November 10?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$8.7K
$57.74
93¢ → 78.5¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $9.0K | $7.1K | $-1.9K | 61% 38-24 (62) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $120 | $768 | +$648 | 50% 79-79 (158) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $217.56 | $593.55 | +$442.84 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 73.5¢ | $353.65 | $206.46 | +$851.55 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $8.25 | $7.48 | -$0.77 | 100% 30-0 (30) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.75 | $4.8 | +$1.05 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
Invested
$9,014.21
Value
$7.1K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$120
Value
$768
PnL
+$648
Record
50%
79-79 (158)
Invested
$217.56
Value
$593.55
PnL
+$442.84
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$353.65
Value
$206.46
PnL
+$851.55
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$7.48
PnL
-$0.77
Record
100%
30-0 (30)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$1.05
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.